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Preparing for the Worst: The Space Insurance Market's Realistic Disaster Scenarios

To cite this article:
Gubby Robin, Wade David, and Hoffer David. New Space. May 2016, 4(2): 98-106. doi:10.1089/space.2015.0008.

Published in Volume: 4 Issue 2: May 31, 2016
Online Ahead of Print: August 4, 2015

Author information

Robin Gubby,1 David Wade,2 and David Hoffer1
1Atrium Space Insurance Consortium, Ottawa, Canada.
2Atrium Space Insurance Consortium, London, United Kingdom.

Manuscript presented at the International Astronautical Congress, 65, Toronto, Canada, September 29–October 3, 2014. Copyright © 2014 by IAF.

Address correspondence to:
David Wade
Atrium Space Insurance Consortium
Room 790, Lloyd's, 1 Lime Street
London EC3M 7DQ
United Kingdom
E-mail:

ABSTRACT

Approximately 30 satellite launches are insured each year, and insurance coverage is provided for about 200 in-orbit satellites. The total insured exposure for these risks is currently in excess of US$25 billion. Commercial communications satellites in geostationary Earth orbit represent the majority of these, although a larger number of commercial imaging satellites, as well as the second-generation communication constellations, will see the insurance exposure in low Earth orbit start to increase in the years ahead, from its current level of US$1.5 billion. Regulations covering Lloyd's of London syndicates require that each syndicate reserves funds to cover potential losses and to remain solvent. New regulations under the European Union's Solvency II directive now require each syndicate to develop models for the classes of insurance provided to determine their own solvency capital requirements. Solvency II is expected to come into force in 2016 to ensure improved consumer protection, modernized supervision, deepened EU market integration, and increased international competitiveness of EU insurers. For each class of business, the inputs to the solvency capital requirements are determined not just on previous results, but also to reflect extreme cases where an unusual event or sequence of events exposes the syndicate to its theoretical worst-case loss. To assist syndicates covering satellites to reserve funds for such extreme space events, a series of realistic disaster scenarios (RDSs) has been developed that all Lloyd's syndicates insuring space risks must report upon on a quarterly basis. The RDSs are regularly reviewed for their applicability and were recently updated to reflect changes within the space industry to incorporate such factors as consolidation in the supply chain and the greater exploitation of low Earth orbit. The development of these theoretical RDSs will be overviewed along with the limitations of such scenarios. Changes in the industry that have warranted the recent update of the RDS, and the impact such changes have had will also be outlined. Finally, a look toward future industry developments that may require further amendments to the RDSs will also be covered by the article.

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